BlockBeats News, June 11th. In May, the year-on-year CPI in the United States rose to 4.2%, hitting a nearly three-year high. Energy prices saw a 23.5% annual increase, with gasoline prices spiking even higher by 40.5%, contributing to over 60% of the overall inflation surge for the month. This data once again proves that the Middle East situation and the supply risk in the Strait of Hormuz have become a major driver of global inflation pressure. Energy prices are gradually affecting economic activities through transportation and operational costs.

However, the market is more focused on another set of data. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, only saw a 0.2% monthly increase, lower than market expectations. This indicates that the energy shock has not yet fully spread to the service and consumer end. Housing, medical, and entertainment prices continue to rise modestly, but prices for car insurance, new cars, and household items have fallen, reflecting that domestic demand has not experienced runaway inflation.

This has prompted the market to reassess the policy direction. Although the overall CPI continues to climb, the cooling of core inflation has made it unnecessary for the Fed to immediately raise interest rates in the short term. The market is currently more concerned about whether the meeting next week will shift to a neutral to hawkish stance, rather than directly taking a rate hike action.

For the financial markets, this report reveals an important signal: the current risk has shifted from demand overheating to supply shock. If energy prices remain high due to geopolitical influences, the world will face the pressure of "high inflation but economic slowdown"; conversely, if energy supply returns to normal, core inflation still has the opportunity to return to a downward trajectory.

For the crypto market, the key challenge facing Bitcoin in the short term is no longer just whether the Fed will raise interest rates but whether global liquidity can continue to expand. If energy inflation further drives up the real cost of funds, the valuation of risk assets will be suppressed. However, if core inflation remains under control, market concerns about liquidity are expected to ease.