BlockBeats News, June 17th, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research analyst Chloe pointed out that the core variable of the crypto market this week has shifted from a mere price rebound to the repricing of the Fed's policy path. The upcoming FOMC rate decision and dot plot may serve as a significant watershed for short-term risk assets. The market widely expects the Fed to maintain the 3.50% to 3.75% rate range, but what truly impacts the market is not whether there will be a rate hike this time, but whether the dot plot shows no further rate cuts for the full year of 2026, and even some officials are beginning to lean towards further rate hikes.

This means that the macro environment is transitioning from a "waiting for rate cuts trade" to a "sustained higher rate environment, or even a re-tightening" pricing framework, which is not friendly to the crypto market. The rebound of some altcoins and high-beta assets over the past few months fundamentally relies on the market's advance bet on liquidity improvement. Once the dot plot shifts upward and the post-meeting statement removes hints of future rate cuts, the market will have to reevaluate the valuation of risk assets, especially crypto assets that lack cash flow support and are primarily driven by narratives and leveraged funds.

The current contradiction lies in that the U.S. economy has not significantly weakened: job growth remains strong, and the upward trend in energy prices following the Iran conflict is pushing up inflationary pressure. The debate within the Fed is no longer "when to cut rates," but "whether the current rate is sufficient to contain inflation," which will directly suppress market risk appetite. BTC, as the core liquidity asset of the crypto market, may still have some downside resilience in the short term, but the upside potential will be constrained by real interest rates and USD liquidity; ETH and major altcoins rely more on the recovery of risk appetite for funding. If U.S. bond yields rise or the dollar strengthens, funds may continue to flow out of high-volatility assets.

Warsh's first press conference after taking office is also crucial. If he emphasizes not providing forward guidance and downplays the commitment nature of the dot plot, the market may temporarily ease; if he acknowledges the risk of entrenched inflation and remains open to further tightening, the crypto market may see a new round of deleveraging. From a market observation perspective, if the dot plot is notably hawkish, the crypto market will most likely experience an initial drop followed by consolidation; if Warsh takes a moderate stance, there may be a weak rebound after the event, but the sustainability will still depend on whether the inflation data truly recedes.