BlockBeats News, June 22. On June 21, Li Bei, the founder of Shanghai Banxia Investment Management Center, released an open letter to investors, revealing that the fund experienced a significant drop in net asset value due to the equity holdings in the energy, real estate, consumer, and building materials sectors. The fund's current equity net exposure is 50%, and positions have been moderately reduced by clearing out holdings with insufficient certainty.
In the letter, Li Bei openly admitted that the relevant holdings have come under significant pressure recently, with a greater-than-expected correction in the domestic demand and real estate sectors. The most attention-grabbing part of the letter directly addressed the current market sentiment: she fully understands investors who have lost patience, respects those who choose to redeem and observe, but for those who want to redeem and chase after AI gains, she said, "Even if you scold me, I still want to advise, please be cautious."
Regarding the rationale for not chasing after AI, Li Bei clearly pointed out that the conditions for the AI bubble to burst have emerged. Represented by Anthropic's annual revenue growth rate, the revenue growth of downstream model companies has significantly slowed down, and it will likely be below the market's previous optimistic expectations by the end of the year. The subsequent expected decline in capital expenditures is a highly probable event. She also mentioned that the current AI industry chain is in a phase of "high profits and valuations, leading indicators trending down, lagging indicators still trending up," theoretically indicating a phase of gradual exit rather than adding more positions.
Regarding her own holdings, Li Bei insisted that the valuations of leading companies related to domestic demand are currently extremely low, with the P/E ratio of consumer sector leaders dropping from a peak of over 50 times to less than 10 times. Even if domestic demand remains at the bottom for a long time, there can still be decent absolute returns over a two-year horizon. Once domestic demand recovers or real estate sees unexpected policy changes, significant excess returns could be quickly realized.
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