BlockBeats News, July 31st, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research analyst Chloe pointed out that this week global risk assets continued to be under pressure, with Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh attempting to weaken forward guidance for the first time, hoping to make market pricing a more direct economic feedback mechanism. However, the market did not interpret the rise in long-term interest rates as a natural tightening of financial conditions, but rather as a resurgence of inflation risks and a decline in the Fed's policy credibility. The 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.2%, the US dollar weakened, and the US stock market retreated, reflecting investors' demand for a higher risk premium rather than a bet on improving economic fundamentals.

The core contradiction in the current market has shifted from "whether to cut interest rates" to "whether the Fed still has the ability to control inflation." Although Warsh stated that market tightening of financial conditions has partially replaced rate hikes, he has always maintained a vague attitude towards the need for further rate hikes, causing the market to begin doubting the Fed's policy implementation in a high inflation environment. At the same time, the escalation of the US-Iran situation has pushed up energy prices, further reinforcing inflation expectations and also increasing the probability of rate hikes in September and December.

For US stocks, the continued rise in long-term interest rates means that technology growth stocks are still facing valuation compression pressure. The core logic that drove the AI rally was built on low discount rates and high growth expectations, and the ongoing rise in risk-free rates will increase future cash flow discount rates, suppressing high-valuation sectors. Therefore, prior to profit realization, AI, semiconductor, and high-beta tech stocks may still experience high volatility.

The crypto market is similarly affected by macro liquidity. Although mainstream assets like BTC have not yet shown systemic risk, a tightening of US dollar liquidity and rising real rates usually dampen risk appetite, with funds more likely to flow into cash and short-duration assets. If the Fed ultimately chooses to rebuild policy credibility through rate hikes, the crypto market may continue to face valuation pressure in the short term; conversely, once inflation is back under control, risk assets may experience a new round of liquidity restoration.

Overall, the focus of the current market trading is no longer on interest rates themselves, but on central bank credibility. In the coming weeks, inflation data, energy prices, and speeches by former officials before the September FOMC meeting will be key variables determining the direction of global risk assets.